The State of the Oscar Race

The Oscar race strikes me as painfully weak so far without the makings of a The King’s Speech vs. The Social Network fight to the death.

It has become clear that The Artist is the Oscar frontrunner.

A darling among critics, The Artist appears often on the critic’s top ten lists and scooped up a crucial prize from The New York Film Critics early. Its momentum began at Cannes where audiences applauded its director for mastering silent film techniques.

The fact that this film looks fondly at Hollywood’s silent past in a digital era will go over well with The Academy, like it went over well at Cannes.

In an effort to stop its momentum, the blogs have called the film too lightweight, pointless and shallow to win. This backlash however didn’t stop it from leading both the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations as it continues a steadfast march toward victory.

Come Oscar time it may run the risk of overexposure where Oscar voters get sick of the frontrunner and switch last minute ala Crash over Brokeback Mountain and Million Dollar Baby over The Aviator. This is where The Descendants (or Hugo?) could steal it.

Let’s not forget that the film is backed by one of the most powerful marketers in Hollywood, Harvey Weinstein, who has a history of boosting an unlikely but popular contender. He has done it before with The English Patient, Shakespeare in Love and Chicago. He can do it again.